There are two ways to read cards: observing betting patterns and picking up tells. Here we discuss betting patterns.
Many experts have described the general techniques for understanding betting patterns. Buy their books and read their websites. You can’t be a good player without this skill, and you will soon win back whatever you spend. We particularly recommend Sklansky, The Theory of Poker, pp. 48-60; Sklansky and Malmuth, Hold ‘em Poker for Advanced Players: 21 Century Edition, pp 225-236 and 300-305, Sklansky, Malmuth, and Zee, Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players: 21 Century Edition, pp. 177-186 and 289-294, and Othmer, Elements of Seven Card Stud, pp. 163-170.
These books provide the foundation, and this discussion is not a substitute for them. It just adds some distinctly psychological topics.
Apply “The Law of Subjective Rationality”
The evening news gives examples of this law all the time. We hear about someone’s shooting several strangers, and wonder why he would do such a thing. Objectively, of course, he is crazy, but his actions are subjectively rational: They make sense to him. He believed the CIA or the Martians or the Mafia was going to kill him, so he shot first. This is sad but true.
What does this have to do with poker? Everything. If you can get into the other player’s head, understand why he plays poker, what he wants to do, and how he sees the situation, you can understand actions that are now utterly inexplicable.
They may seem ridiculous to you, but they almost always make sense to the person taking them. For example, one wealthy farmer would raise and reraise, sometimes without looking at his cards, because “Looking at your cards just slows the game down.”
He played like a maniac, but he was not one bit crazy; he knew exactly what he was doing and what it would cost him. He always played in low limit games because he could play wildly without losing enough money to bother him. He was playing to relax, blowing money he could afford to lose, and getting something he wanted. His poker playing was no crazier than buying a Rolls Royce, a Rolex watch, or a racehorse, and it was much saner than getting drunk or using cocaine
That kind of “irrationality” can be seen all the time. A pessimist folds a positive expectation draw because “I never make a flush.” A calling station calls a raise from a rock to draw dead because “maybe he’s bluffing.” A few hold’em players will raise with weaker hands, but not with pocket aces because “people always draw out on me when I raise with them.”
If you agree with the myth that “winning is the only motive,” you can’t make sense of these plays, but you have certainly seen them. To read people’s cards you must set aside your ideas about what people should do, get into their heads, learn how they think, and what they are trying to do.
Are they out to win the most money? Or to have a wild time? Or to pass the night cheaply? Do they think a flush draw is worth a raise head to head? Are they superstitious about lucky cards such as a pair of tens?
Remember this fundamental concept of the Law of Subjective rationality, and you will have move one step forward in the poker journey.